IDC (International Data Corporation) have updated their yearly forecast for the PC Market in 2013 – and things do not look good. The negative growth estimates have been revised down even lower and now the worldwide PC shipments are expected to drop by 9.7%. IDC expect continued decline until 2015 at the earliest making this the longest period of prolonged decline for the PC in history. Apparently in 2015 we may only see very modest single digit PC shipment growth and it is quite possible that decline will continue past 2015.
What are the factors behind this further decline? Well IDC reports stubbornly depressed consumer interest and a loss of market share to the expansion of mobile devices and tablets. The main changes to this figure come from the dramatic decline of the PC shipments in emerging markets like China.
“The days where one can assume tablet disruptions are purely a First World problem are over,” said Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC. “Advances in PC hardware, such as improvements in the power efficiency of x86 processors remain encouraging, and Windows 8.1 is also expected to address a number of well-documented concerns. However, the current PC usage experience falls short of meeting changing usage patterns that are spreading through all regions, especially as tablet price and performance become ever more attractive.”
If growth were to return IDC expects it to come from modest consumer refresh trends. In recent years these refresh-lifecycles have dramatically lengthened as computing power is currently substantial enough to avert upgrades, businesses are reluctant to look beyond Windows XP and Windows 7 and people find that their tablets and smartphones can cater for most of their needs.
Images courtesy of IDC